Report: Relaxing bail policy does not lead to more crime

A new report from the nonpartisan California Policy Lab (CPL) shows the likely impact of several changes to bail policy in the city and county of Los Angeles, including the elimination of the emergency bail plan implemented at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Bail reform is a pressing policy issue at the state and local levels in California, as well as nationally. Importantly, this report shows the short-term impacts of implementing and repealing bail reform policies to better inform the debate about the relationship between bail policy and crime and safety.

The report estimates the short-term impact of these policy changes on prison populations, crime reports and arrests in the two months following their implementation. CPL is the research partner of the Committee on Reform of the Penal Code (CRPC) and conducted this research on behalf of the CRPC.

Before the pandemic, Los Angeles County used cash bail, an approach still used in most of California but heavily criticized for being unfair to people unable to pay bail for their release. These individuals often remain in jail until their arraignment—even if they pose little threat to public safety and are at low risk of failing to appear in court. Jail stays can impose legal, social and economic costs on those incarcerated, impacting their families and jobs.

Policymakers want to better understand whether bail policies that encourage pre-trial release (rather than jail) for minor offenses will change overall crime rates, and this report aims to help answer that question.

“A common criticism of bail policy reforms is that reforms would lead to an increase in crime, but that is not what we found,” explains co-author Dr. Johanna Lacoe, research director of the California Policy Lab at UC Berkeley.

“Not surprisingly, the bail policy changes had an impact on the number of incarcerated people. However, overall, we found no statistically significant changes in the total number of crime reports or arrests following the bail policy changes.”

Key findings include:

1. The elimination of emergency bail and the return to cash bail resulted in an increase in the average daily jail population, with no short-term impact on crime citywide. The elimination of emergency bail in July 2022 resulted in a statistically significant increase in the average daily jail population over the following two months, with no change in the number of arrests or crime reports.
2. Reinstating the emergency bail plan did not change the county's average daily jail population or overall crime citywide over the following two months, but some property crimes increased. Reinstating the emergency bail plan in May 2023 did not cause the average daily jail population to deviate from its pre-period decline, but did result in a decline in pre-trial detention above the pre-period trend. At the same time, there was no statistically significant change in the total number of crime reports or arrests, but property crime reports increased compared to the pre-period trend.
3. Pre-Arraignment Release Protocols (PARPs) reduced the total daily and pre-trial inmate population in county jails during the two months following their implementation, with no impact on citywide crime. The daily pre-trial inmate population in county jails decreased by an average of over 200 people (or three percent) following the implementation of PARPs compared to the pre-period trend. Despite the decrease in the number of inmates, there were no changes in reported crimes during the same period. Arrests for minor offenses decreased, while the overall arrest trend did not change.

The research team analyzed the following key changes in bail policy:

1. A return to LA County's normal bail schedule in July 2022 after the emergency bail plan expires.
2. The resumption of the emergency bail plan in the City of Los Angeles by the Los Angeles Police Department and the Los Angeles Sheriff's Department in May 2023 following the Urquidi decision.
3. Implementation of Pre-Arraignment Release Protocols (PARPs) in Los Angeles County in October 2023, which provide for $0 bail for non-violent, non-serious felonies and misdemeanors.

This analysis uses three publicly available data sources: LAPD arrest data for 2020-2023, LAPD crime data for 2020-2024, and LA County daily jail data for 2020-2023 compiled by the Vera Institute. CPL conducted this study as part of a research partnership with the Committee on Revision of the Penal Code, a state agency that studies California's criminal justice system and makes recommendations for improvement.