Law enforcement in the United States has collapsed. In many parts of the country, Americans are seeing that products in CVS, Walgreens, and Walmart stores are hidden behind plexiglass screens, that you have to call a clerk to open the screen, and then wait while you read and examine the various packages. People know these companies have no choice. Americans know crime is on the rise, but the true breakdown of law enforcement, especially in big cities, is unprecedented.
A Gallup poll last November found that 92% of Republicans and as many as 58% of Democrats believed crime is increasing. In a series of polls from March 2023 to April 2024, Rasmussen Reports finds a remarkably consistent percentage of Americans who believe violent crime is getting worse – 60% to 61%. About four times as many people believe violent crime is getting worse rather than getting better.
But the collapse could be even bigger than most people think.
FBI data shows that arrest rates have dropped sharply in recent years starting in 2020. In cities with populations over 1 million, the arrest rate for reported violent crimes averaged 41% over the 24 years from 1996 to 2019, but dropped to 20.3% in 2022 – a 50% drop. The lowest arrest rate in the previous 24 years before COVID-19 was 32.6%. That's still 61% higher than the rate in 2022.
The arrest rate for murder fell by 37%, for rape by 58%, for robbery by 50% and for aggravated assault by 54%.
Even more dramatic is the drop in the arrest rate for property crimes. The average arrest rate for reported property crimes fell from an average of 13% over the 25 years from 1996 to 2021 to 4.5% – a drop of 64%. The lowest arrest rate in the previous 24 years between 1996 and 2019 was 12%. The arrest rate in 2022 was still 61% lower than the previous low rate. The drop in reported thefts, the largest category of property crime, is dramatic, falling from an average arrest rate of 14.6% to just 3.8% – a drop of 75%.
But the situation is even worse than these numbers suggest. All of these numbers come from FBI-reported crimes, and as law enforcement has collapsed, the number of unreported crimes has increased. So the actual drop in arrest rates is even greater than these already stark numbers indicate. Because property crimes are less frequently reported than violent crimes, the actual arrest rate for all property crimes or all thefts is extremely low.
Reported crimes have declined for other reasons. In recent years, as police numbers have declined due to budget cuts and a series of retirements, police departments across the country — from Charlottesville and Henrico County, Virginia, to Chicago and Olympia, Washington — have stopped responding to non-emergency calls. Instead of the police coming, people can still go to the police station.
When arrests are considered as a percentage of all crimes (reported and unreported), only 8% of all violent crimes and 1% of all property crimes in these major cities result in an arrest.
At the same time, as we have seen with many progressive prosecutors, the number of indictments and prosecutions against criminals has decreased, which has led to an even greater reduction in the severity of punishment.
In her acceptance speech at the Democratic National Convention, Kamala Harris described herself as a prosecutor who takes a tough stance against crime. However, she did not criticize law enforcement in major cities controlled by the Democrats.
Despite what Democrats and the media keep claiming, the Bureau of Justice Statistics' total crime count (reported and unreported) has skyrocketed under the Biden-Harris administration. Democrats and the media simply cite the FBI's numbers on reported crimes, even though more than half of police departments either do not report data to the FBI or report incomplete data.
But here lies the puzzle: Even if Democrats and the media want to rely solely on the FBI, FBI data shows that arrest rates have dropped to unprecedented levels. How then can they ignore the collapse of law enforcement? Why is it surprising that crime rates are rising?
• This article was originally published by RealClearPolitics and made available through RealClearWire.
