AfD and CDU will probably be the strongest forces in Saxony and Thuringia. The AfD is pushing for 30 percent. The RUHR24 live ticker for the election.
Update, Sunday (September 1), 3:56 p.m.: The current state elections in Thuringia and Saxony indicate a similar voter turnout to the 2019 elections. By midday, 25.8 percent of eligible voters in Saxony had cast their votes. This was reported by the State Statistical Office in Kamenz. At the same time in 2019, turnout was 26.2 percent.
Elections in Saxony and Thuringia now live: First figures on voter turnout are in
The preliminary figures do not yet take into account postal voters. Around 24.6 percent of eligible voters are expected to vote by post, while this proportion was 16.9 percent in 2019.
According to the state election officer, voter turnout in Thuringia was around 32 percent by 12:00 p.m. Here, too, postal voters are not included in these figures. In the 2019 state election, voter turnout at this time was 31.2 percent.
The polling stations will remain open until 6:00 p.m. so that eligible voters can still cast their votes.
Update, Sunday (September 1), 11.42am: Saxony's Prime Minister Michael Kretschmer is of course prepared to lead the next state government. “It has to be the Saxon Union.” We are here in Saxony, we will not let anyone tell us what to do. “We are going our own Saxon way,” the CDU politician explained after casting his vote in Dresden this morning.
The SPD's top candidate, Petra Köpping, expressed a “queasy feeling” when she was elected this morning and stressed that the voters must now decide. The current Minister of Social Affairs stressed that cooperation with the CDU had worked well in the past. “And I just hope that there will be a stable coalition again,” Köpping added.
Update, Sunday (September 1), 7.45 a.m.: The state elections in Thuringia and Saxony are crucial for the 2025 federal election. The AfD could achieve record results of around 30 percent, but will probably not be able to govern due to a lack of coalition partners. Coalition formation is likely to be difficult, especially with a possible new alliance around Sahra Wagenknecht. In Saxony, Michael Kretschmer (CDU) has a chance of another term in office, while Bodo Ramelow (Left) has to fear for his office in Thuringia. The traffic light parties (SPD, Greens, FDP) are threatened with a serious debacle.
Update, Saturday (31 August), 3:55 p.m.: AfD party chairman Tino Chrupalla spoke in Görlitz, Saxony, about the recent Islamist-motivated attacks in Mannheim and presumably also Solingen. He stressed: “With us, such conditions will never happen.” According to Chrupalla, the state must be able to guarantee security, infrastructure and affordable energy. The AfD rejects any form of “nagging” of citizens.
Update, Saturday (31 August), 2:42 p.m.: Federal Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) appeared together with Saxony's top candidate Petra Köpping at the end of the Saxon SPD's election campaign in Chemnitz. However, the event was overshadowed by loud protests. Boos and the shrill blaring of whistles repeatedly reached the ears of the participants, who came from a rally of the small right-wing extremist party Free Saxony.
Update, Friday (30 August), 12.34 p.m.: What is the political situation in Thuringia and Saxony after the state elections on? Sunday (September 1) Ann-Katrin Müller, political journalist at Mirror and AfD and right-wing extremism expert looks ahead. While in both federal states no party wants to work with the AfD, which the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution classifies as “certainly right-wing extremist”, a newcomer has been able to take on government responsibility for the first time.
State elections in Thuringia and Saxony: Expert predicts innovation
In Saxony, the AfD and Prime Minister Michael Kretschmer's CDU are neck and neck. “A coalition without the AfD should work,” Müller is sure. “However, that will only work with the 'Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance' (BSW), which will produce new problems and extreme compromises.” If the two actually come together, this could give the AfD the opportunity to present itself as “the only opposition party.”
And in Thuringia? The journalist makes a paradoxical observation there: According to polls, the Left Party is doing rather poorly there. According to Infratest dimap, it is only at around 13 percent, while in 2019 it was at an impressive 31 percent. However, the left-wing Prime Minister Bodo Ramelow would be “immediately re-elected (…) to the office, well ahead of the other candidates,” says Müller.
State elections in Thuringia and Saxony: Höcke could present himself as a “real option”
One observation from the expert: In Thuringia, the BSW is primarily competing with the Left Party's voters – and not with the AfD, as was initially assumed. According to Müller, the AfD's top candidate, Björn Höcke, is benefiting in particular from the fact that “the other parties do not have a uniform strategy for dealing with the AfD.”
Even if no one in Thuringia wants to form a coalition with the right, Höcke – like his like-minded colleagues in Saxony – could present himself as “a real option” even without participating in the government.
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First report, Thursday (29 August), 2.30 p.m.: The super election year has a lot to offer. Before all Americans elect their new head of state on November 5th and voters in Brandenburg go to the polls on September 22nd, voters in Saxony and Thuringia decided to cast their votes on September 1st. Looking at the election forecasts, a clear result is emerging – the political future in the two eastern German states, however, is less clear.
Live ticker for state elections in Thuringia and Saxony: Clear result is emerging
The AfD, whose regional associations in both Saxony and Thuringia are classified by the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution as “certainly right-wing extremist”, can hope for many votes. However, its leading candidate Björn Höcke recently had to withdraw from the election campaign for health reasons.
In both Thuringia and Saxony, the ARD election research institute “Infratest dimap” predicts around 30 percent for the AfD. In Thuringia, this would be an increase of around seven percent compared to the last election in 2019. This would put the party well ahead of the second-placed party. According to the institute, the CDU is heading for around 23 percent. In 2019, the party, now led by Mario Voigt, received 21.7 percent of the vote.
Live ticker for state elections in Thuringia and Saxony: AfD will probably get about 30 percent
And in Saxony? The AfD is in a real neck-and-neck race with the CDU. A few days before election day, pollsters see the CDU, led by Prime Minister Michael Kretschmer (31 percent), ahead of Jörg Urban, who is the AfD's top candidate. If things actually turn out as Infratest dimap predicts, the CDU would lose a few percentage points compared to 2019 (32.1 percent), while the AfD would gain around three percent.
A new factor that was not yet on the ballot in 2019 is the Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) alliance. In Thuringia (17 percent) and also in Saxony (14 percent), the new party came in third place. (more political news at RUHR24).
Live ticker on state elections in Thuringia and Saxony: Forming a government will probably be difficult
The formation of a new government in the two federal states is likely to be difficult. In Thuringia, a red-red-green minority government led by the Left has been in power since 2019. The party with Prime Minister Bodo Ramelow is facing a difficult election. In 2019, it still received an impressive 31 percent, but currently there are many indications of a drop to around 13 percent.
In the end, they are unlikely to play a role in the coalition negotiations. On the other hand, the CDU, SPD and the BSW could bring about a government majority. However, there are major differences in content on issues such as migration or energy and education policy that would have to be overcome.
Live ticker on state elections in Thuringia and Saxony: BSW and CDU do not want to work with AfD
The same applies to cooperation between the CDU and the AfD, which Union leader Merz ruled out at the end of August. “We must not extend a hand to those who want to eliminate us politically,” Merz told the German Radio.
In the TV duel with Björn Höcke, Mario Voigt also put a stop to a coalition with the right-wing populists. A coalition of AfD, SPD and BSW also currently seems unlikely in Thuringia.
Because BSW boss Sahra Wagenknecht, who was recently compared to Vladimir Putin by a historian, said on Wednesday (28 August) compared to the French Press Agency (AFP)she “obviously” rules out cooperation with the AfD, “because the AfD unfortunately has a very strong right-wing radical, right-wing extremist wing that dominates especially in the East,” she added.
Live ticker for state elections in Thuringia and Saxony: AfD isolated, Left and Greens threatened with collapse
In Saxony, the government of the CDU, the Greens (6 percent) and the SPD (7 percent) could continue under the leadership of CDU Prime Minister Kretschmer. Mercury reported, Kretschmer recently described the election in the Free State at a rally in Dresden as a “fateful election” in which “everything” was at stake.
A narrow majority of the CDU and the BSW would also be conceivable. However, AfD participation in the government also seems unlikely in Saxony due to the resistance of the CDU and the BSW.
It is also already clear who the big losers will be in the election. The Greens could be thrown out of the Thuringian state parliament with just four percent. The Left Party also has to worry: They could miss the five percent hurdle in Saxony and thus fail to enter the Dresden state parliament. They are currently at around four percentage points in the Free State.
